Trends in Tuberculosis Incidence and their Determinants in 134 Countries

This report describes a study that determined whether differences in national trends in tuberculosis (TB) incidence are attributable to the variable success of control programs or to biological, social, and economic factors. Trends in case notifications were used as a measure of trends in incidence in 135 countries from 1997-2006, and regression analysis was used to explore the associations between these trends and 32 measures covering aspects of development, the economy, the population, behavioral and biological risk factors, health services, and TB control. Results indicate that treatment programs have not had a major, detectable effect on incidence on a large scale and lists possible reasons.