Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009

This report in the form of a journal article describes a study to estimate the size and direction of the HIV epidemic in the United States from 2006–2009. The report updated earlier estimates of HIV incidence for 2006 based on additional data and methodological refinements and extended previous results with estimates for 2007, 2008, and 2009. The researchers estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and two cities in the United States, and a modification of a stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups. Based on a revised stratified extrapolation approach for estimating HIV incidence, the number of new infections in the United States remained relatively stable between 2006 and 2009. The only population with a change in HIV incidence over the four-year period was 13–29 year old men who have sex with men, particularly black/African American MSM.